Le problème avec les certitudes
Une vérité fondamentale du capital-risque est que très, très souvent, on se trompe totalement.
Les incentives font en sorte qu’il est plus douloureux de croire en une société qui échoue (…
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Le blog de Keyvan Nilforoushan
Archive for the month “September, 2009”
Caterina Fake, founder of Flickr.com : Working hard is overrated
(via Bijan Sabet)
“When we were building Flickr, we worked very hard. We worked all
waking hours, we didn’t stop. My Hunch cofounder Chris Dixon and I were
talking about how hard we worked on our first startups, his being Site
Advisor, acquired by McAfee — 14-18 hours a day. We agreed that a lot
of what we then considered “working hard” was actually “freaking out”.
Freaking out included panicking,…
A fundamental thruth of Venture Capital: very, very often, we get it totally wrong.
All the incentives are there to make it more painful to believe in a company that doesn’t make it (Type I error) than to pass on a company that makes it big (Type II error). As a consequence, from the moment we receive a business plan, assuming we get excited by the company, most of the review process is focused on finding good reasons to say no.
And it is to be expected that sometimes we are…
New post : deadbeat companies and their suppliers http://bit.ly/2JWuIC (english version of the post) #cortera #creditratings
Nouveau post : les mauvais payeurs, et leurs fournisseurs. http://bit.ly/15zPX
Notation crédit 2.0 : Cortera
Quelques entreprises sont notoirement connues pour être de mauvais payeurs.
Ils ne le font pas forcément exprès. C’est plus souvent une question de procédures : trop de signatures à…
Some companies are well known to be awful payers.
Not necessarily on purpose. Usually, it is a question of process: too many necessary signatures, approvals, too many changes needed on the billing statement…
Of course, if a SME tried to do the same, its suppliers would soon panic, think it is in trouble, and stop delivering. However, most bad payers are usually large reputable companies. As a consequence, their suppliers bide their time and find other solutions — while, for…
New blog post : Surveys and Jeopardy http://bit.ly/qmvNC
Nouveau post : “Mesure d’opinion – La bonne question” http://bit.ly/2cuD77
La bonne question
La mesure d’opinion est un sujet bien complexe… Pas forcément pour les raisons que l’on pense.
De l’extérieur, la complexité semble être dans les modèles de traitement numérique et statistique,…
Surveys are not an easy undertaking. Not for lack of answers, but for lack of questions.
Complexity seems to lie in numerical and statistical procedures. However, the best statistician will not get anything out of skewed or faulty data.
Why then are so many surveys so badly written ?
For instance :
- many questions have multiple parts (“what is your opinion about this restaurant’s service?”). How do you know whether the client reacted to the great maître d’h or the horrendous waitress?
- …
J’aime bien la synthèse de Tvnomics sur les start-ups vidéo française. Mais un peu dispersé comme échantillon… http://bit.ly/drkUm
This is just fabulous ! E-mail error ends up on road sign http://bit.ly/u9S3L (via @monkchips)
Neutralité du net – La position de la FCC
Dans une confirmation importante de sa précédente prise de position, la FCC a fortement confirmé aujourd’hui, à travers son nouveau président Julius Genachowski, son attachement aux principes de…
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