A fundamental thruth of Venture Capital: very, very often, we get it totally wrong.
All the incentives are there to make it more painful to believe in a company that doesn’t make it (Type I error) than to pass on a company that makes it big (Type II error). As a consequence, from the moment we receive a business plan, assuming we get excited by the company, most of the review process is focused on finding good reasons to say no.
And it is to be expected that sometimes we are…